Launch
US$4.1B
Proven cadence · feeds orbital economics
Both ways · as of Signal № 006
One owner from power through compute to application — and whether that chain compounds faster than the market can replicate. H15 is a cross-vendor thesis; we map it through the integrator furthest along the stack. Today that is SpaceX — the only candidate with disclosed revenue, binding compute build-out, and a public-market clock.
Vertical integration of power, data centres and frontier compute becomes structurally consequential by end of 2027.
Added mid-cycle after the S-1 disclosure. H15 is cross-cutting by design — it touches H1, H3, H5, H6, and H14 simultaneously. Weekly status reads live in the Signal; this page holds the longer map we iterate over time.
H15 applies to any owner trying to own power → compute → application. Helicopter view: power generation is the industry bind; compute access is the valve that feeds frontier capability. The map below is SpaceX-specific — the furthest-along live case, not the only possible outcome. Read top-down: filing-disclosed base first, roadshow fiction at the horizon.
Foundation map
What the S-1 discloses → what the deck prices for 2030
S-1 · 2025
US$18.7B consolidated revenue
US$4.1B
Proven cadence · feeds orbital economics
US$11.4B
Profitable growth engine · real margins
Building now
Infrastructure power co-located with compute
Dedicated generation installed with Colossus build-outs
Terrestrial compute · leased today · owned build-out ramping
AI segment
The bet the IPO is really selling
US$3.2B · 2025
Models · Grok · stack AI revenue today
US$322B · by 2030
Roadshow projection · not our forecast
US$60B · binding deal
Enterprise AI coding · the accelerant the organic run-rate could not bridge on the IPO clock
Roadshow sequence
Next on the deck plausible · not asserted
Colossus 3+ feed · shift from landlord leases to owned xAI + Cursor training
Tesla combination · market speculation · Megapack · grid-scale generation
2030 horizon
Deck fiction economics contested
~3× terrestrial cost · Barron's framing · insurance talks are pathfinding, not proof
Solid = filing or under construction. Green = binding at last update. Dashed = roadshow projection or speculation. The hundred-fold xAI path only works if each projected layer converts.
Likely sequence: Cursor close (Q3) → Colossus feed turns captive → Tesla combination if the listing window holds.
Watch: Cursor close, segment reporting, Colossus feed rate, and whether fed compute compounds frontier capability before the 2030 clock runs out.
H15 only resolves if several other theses hold or break in compatible ways:
The stack updates when binding moves land — not every week. Start with Signal № 006 for the Cursor deal and the H15 read that accelerated past the design brief. Earlier context: Signal 004 (Goldman roadshow sketch), Signal 005 (IPO lock-up and Cursor option).