The largest IPO ever and the earnings that spooked credit landed in the same week.
Lock-up mechanics, Oracle's print, and the credit lines that moved this week.
SpaceX's S-1 staggers insider release instead of a standard 180-day cliff — logical if you're worried about sellers at a valuation priced far ahead of fundamentals, in a story still unfolding. How it works: 20% after the first earnings print, 7% at each of five later dates, 28% more after the second print, Musk locked for 366 days. Five release valves is not the structure of a company expecting a smooth ride. The ticker bundles launch, Starlink, terrestrial compute and xAI — one integrated stack priced like several monopolies, whether or not the income statement underneath agrees yet. Read one way, it is the greatest startup/Sci-Fi movie script of the 1990s finally arriving in public markets; read another, it is the market underwriting a future so far removed from today's earnings that even the prospectus builds escape hatches for the people who know the story best. We will be watching this one closely. The next few months still have market performance to prove, announcements to land, landlord economics to test, acquisitions to chase, a Tesla merger still priced as probability rather than plan — plenty can still happen, and the script is not finished.
Oracle reported the quarter the build-out is supposed to produce — revenue up, remaining performance obligations still climbing, AI orders still landing. Then credit asked who pays: free cash flow went deeply negative and next year's spend is guided mostly on debt. The stock fell 12% in a day. The backlog is real. The funding model is what got repriced.
Morgan Stanley sees AI-related bond issuance nearing $570 billion in 2026; Amazon lined up a $17.5 billion term loan the same week.