Picture someone with a full inbox, a flight to change and a dentist appointment to move. An agent offers to do all three, if it can get into the email, the calendar and the phone. This fortnight a lot of people took that deal.
Muse hit No. 1 on the U.S. App Store on 18 Sep. Downloads in the U.S. and Canada run between 2.3 million and 4.3 million, depending on the tracker. Daily use in the U.S. is roughly 600K to 700K, on third-party estimates. Meta did not invent the design: Muse reuses the core file names of the open agent project OpenClaw. Meta put a known design in front of its users, and distribution did the rest. Meta also knows trust is the weak point. Mark Zuckerberg says the company “delayed shipping [AI assistant] Muse for several months to focus on safety and security”.
The challenger is smaller and moving faster. Instinct is in talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation of about $10 billion, The Information reported, and the round has not closed. The talks came three weeks after Instinct announced a $250 million Series B at a $2.5 billion valuation on 26 Aug. The Wall Street Journal reports that “Instinct is the work of an 11-person startup, built on top of an open-source Chinese AI model”.
Instinct’s edge is not the model or its memory. It lives inside the messaging apps people already use, and it finishes the job. AI researchers talk about Instinct’s “form factor” a lot, Wired found. Features do not stay ahead for long. When Instinct added phone calls, the rivals were “all now in parity with each other on this front”.
The trust record is the counter. Wired’s review reports that users found Instinct kept a copy of their inboxes after they disconnected it. The Muse numbers are third-party estimates from trackers that disagree, and daily users are a fraction of downloads. A download is a first tap, not a handover of every account.
Implications. Meta can match a rival’s feature within weeks. Instinct can reach people with a tiny team on an open model. Neither company owns a feature for long, so the contest is for permission: the right to sit inside your email and act. Expect a lot more consumer agents on the horizon and companies optimising for LLM discoverability and purchase paths for agents.